Boring but safe

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Looks like self-driving, autonomous cars are inevitable. Both Ford and GM have each invested one billion dollars in their self-driving car projects, not to mention vast sums invested by Google, Uber, Tesla, others. Almost nobody doubts that it's going to happen.

Bob Lutz says that a tipping point is going to arrive when 20-30% of all vehicles on the road are fully autonomous. "Fully autonomous" is Level 5 self-driving technology, the ultimate - you can go to sleep in the car.

photo: autonews.com

At that point he thinks that governments will start mandating self-driving cars for safety. But there will be a transition period. "Everyone will have five years to get their [human driven] car off the road or sell it for scrap or trade it on a module."

Then, on public roads, there will only be modules. Nobody will be passing anybody because all modules will be traveling at the same (fast) speed. "That is the death knell for companies such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi. That kind of performance is not going to count anymore."

"Automotive sport — using the cars for fun — will survive, just not on public highways. . . It will be the well-to-do, to the amazement of all their friends, who still know how to drive and who will teach their kids how to drive. It is going to be an elitist thing, though there might be public tracks, like public golf courses, where you sign up for a certain car and you go over and have fun for a few hours."

"Automotive News is doomed. Car and Driver is done; Road & Track is done. . .The era of the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities, its dealerships, the media surrounding it — all will be gone in 20 years."