Bono for capitalism

U2's Bono has lobbied for decades in the cause of more and more aid handouts from Western countries to Africa.  

But some Africans (see this week's earlier posts) protest that aid has been hurting Africa more than helping.  The charge is that corrupt leaders get their hands on the millions, and that average people see very little of it.  Dambisa Moyo has spoken and written on this, one of her books being Dead Aid.

George Ayittey argues that not only does foreign aid produce corruption, but that the efforts of African people to create wealth are hindered in many ways (see Tuesday's post).

The amazing thing is that Bono has changed his mind.  He's still a bit shocked by it, says "it's been a humbling thing for me," but he now says that aid is only a "stopgap."

At a conference about a year ago, he said,   "Job creators and innovators are just the key, and aid is just a bridge."  Redistribution of wealth isn't the answer.  Society prospers when wealth is created.  For stories about how that happens, see the topic "Create Wealth" on the right.

You've got to respect a person who changes his mind when he receives better information. Winners make corrections.

"Please stop" (the aid)

Spiegel interviewer Thielo Thielke is shocked:  economist James Shikwati from Kenya begs the West to stop sending millions of dollars, food, and clothing to Africa.

Thielke is confused.  But people will starve if we don't help them, he said!  The problem is, as in the Bono quote from two days ago, "aid is just a stopgap."  Yes, it is good for a temporary emergency measure, but it's just inadequate in the long run.

What Africans need is a growing economy (Bono: Africa needs "to become an economic powerhouse").  They need prosperous farms and industry - they need to create wealth.

Western industrialized countries did that during the last few centuries which is why they have enough wealth to give away.  And, according to Ayittey (yesterday's post), Africa supported itself before the colonists arrived and can do it again if the West will stop sabotaging their weaving businesses, their corn farms, their local/community efforts to create wealth.

Cheetahs vs. Hippos

George Ayittey, economist from Ghana, says that Africa's elitist leaders are "hippos."  Note who he calls "cheetahs" in his TED talk:

Ayittey condemns African leaders who he claims have not cared for the people they lead  (he calls it the "blind leading the clueless").  Instead, they have made themselves rich by manipulating aid money.  He believes aid has done more harm than good for Africans.

U2's Bono was in attendance, and approached him afterward. Ayittey gave him a copy of his book, Africa Unchained, which may have helped Bono re-think the problems of African nations.

Years ago I remember asking someone (sure wish I could tell you who it was) why Africa is so poor when it has so much in the way of natural resources.  That someone told me that the reason lies with Africa's corrupt and brutal leaders.  So this video - by an African - resonates with me.

Stopgap aid to Africa

Bono of the band U2 made headlines again this past August.  It was not for a concert; it was not for asking developed countries to donate aid to Africa (the 1985 concert, "Live Aid," was his  first fundraising concert).  He has changed his narrative.

The policy of West has been to pump money, food, clothing, wealth in general into African countries that they perceived as needy and desperate.  Motive?  They saw poverty, and they wanted to help.

But did it help?  That is the question.  As more became known about the results of massive aid, voices - from Africa - tried to change the paradigm.  

Bono has been one of the most influential people in the world in raising money for African aid.  But here's what he said in August 2013:

"Aid is just a stopgap. Commerce [and] entrepreneurial capitalism take more people out of poverty than aid. We need Africa to become an economic powerhouse."

Movie heroism

Acculturated.com reviews the movie, "Captain Phillips" with Tom Hanks and some young Somalis recruited to act.  The author says that wisdom and prudence have their part to play in the making of a hero.

"Green" clarification

Maybe I should clarify what side I take in "green" environmental issues. I'd call my position cautious.

From recent articles in Spiegel International, it looks like we could learn from Germany's experience: their aggressive "green" policies are costing taxpayers a lot (as in the United Kingdom, yesterday's post) while showing little in the way of results.

So far I'm not convinced that global warming is or isn't an urgent danger.  If the German Green Party politician Herman Ott is at all representative of the movement,  I'm skeptical.

We seem to have nothing to show for the hundreds of millions we've thrown at green companies in the U.S. . . while our debt is horrible.

I'm taking these issues one at a time, still thinking things through.

UK green costs rise

In the United Kingdom, as we've also seen in Germany, energy prices are rising.  The UK Telegraph in this article reports that complaints are escalating along with calls for change in the government's "green" policies.  It is expected that energy costs will continue to rise every year for the rest of this decade.

Last Friday the Telegraph reported that "one of the most influential think-tanks in the country will say energy subsidies for wind farms and solar panels are a "regressive" tax".  Regressive means that it falls more heavily on the poorer taxpayer than on the wealthier one.

In a related United Kingdom story, a wind farm in the Yorkshire Dales hasn't functioned for years and is being torn down for scrap metal.

China's "one-child"

China being the most populous nation on earth, its policies compel the attention of all countries.  And perhaps the most famous is the "one-child" policy.  Trends developing as a result: 

• "Among newborns, there were more than 118 boys for every 100 girls in 2010 . .  in about 20 or 25 years' time, there will not be enough brides for almost a fifth of today's baby boys—with the potentially vast destabilizing consequences that could have."
• Low total fertility rate has resulted in a rapidly aging society, where the working-age  (20-59) population segment is declining in number while the old/young dependency segment is increasing.  About the year 2030, India will surpass China in the size of its working-age population relative to its dependency population.  This could result in faster growth of India's GNP.
• There is some opposition within China to the one-child policy, but the government still favors it - this in spite of the fact that Taiwan,  Hong Kong, Thailand and Indonesia cut their birth rate to a similar level without China's famously draconian coercion. 

From:  http://www.economist.com/node/18651512 and 

http://www.rand.org/pubs/periodicals/rand-review/issues/2011/winter/dusk-dawn.html

"Therefore" demographics

Predictions for the future are never completely accurate because nobody actually knows the future, but let's assume for the moment that the maps and predictions of the Rand Organization (last Friday's post) turn out to be pretty good.

What will society look like by the year 2050?

For Germany, South Korea, other European countries, Japan - there will be more older people (over 60 years old) than people of working age.  This is the most acute situation.  It varies, but every country will have relatively more older people than they do now, and many will have fewer people working.

Therefore . .  if these older people are dependent on society for financial support (entitlements and other aid), every working-age person on average will in effect have to create enough wealth to support him/herself and one older person.  That sounds like a hefty burden.  Add children.  What are the chances they can do that?

If you are 23 years old or older now, you will be in the older people category by 2050.  Hopefully you're making plans to stay fit & healthy and to create some wealth - because it looks like entitlements will have to retreat from today's levels.

Demographic trends by 2050

In the next few decades, big demographic change will be obvious all over the world.

RAND corporation, a research organization, has four global maps that answer the question:  what kind of population changes will we see by 2050?

Put your cursor over individual countries to find out what that country can expect in the coming decades:

1) will there be more or less working-age people in 2050 than there are now?

2) how much more of the population will be elderly in 2050 compared to the present?

3) how many elderly will there be for every 100 working-age people in 2050?

4) how many children (1-19) will there be for every 100 working-age people in 2050?

Detroit Blight Authority

(cont'd)

Pictures of the change from scary streets to cleaned-up streets in Detroit are here.

Detroit Blight Authority is a non-profit organized specifically to eliminate blight in this city, the goal of its founder, Bill Pulte.  Grandson of the Bill Pulte of Pulte Homes, he got his family to contribute $100k, and total fund raising so far is $750k.  But with about 38,000 structures abandoned and dangerous, that's just a start.

Millions of dollars will be needed. In August, Detroit received about $52 million from the federal government for blight removal.

In this video at USA Today, Pulte is asked what people who live in or near these neighborhoods think about the progress.  They're pleased.

Blight buster

Could destroying a house ever be constructive?  Well, yes it could, if the house were abandoned, decaying, and a danger to the neighborhood.

Detroit has lost a lot of people, 25% of its population, resulting in "blight" (see "Ruins of Detroit").

"There are at least 78,000 abandoned and blighted structures in Detroit, nearly half of which are considered “dangerous” because of fire damage or criminal activity."

You might suppose it would be easy to get rid of the blight, since the property is now almost worthless.  But no, it actually costs $8-10k to demolish a house when that includes the government regulation involved.

Someone has taken on the effort.

Fred's marriage story

"Life goes around only once . . I wish we could do the good times over again."

Data inconvenient

Germany's Der Spiegel reports that things have not been going well for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).  

Average global temperature has not risen for 15 years.  According to computer models used to support arguments of global warming activists, it should have.  

At the same time,  "A survey conducted on behalf of SPIEGEL found a dramatic shift in public opinion -- Germans are losing their fear of climate change."  In 2006, 62% said they were afraid of global warming, but only 39% are afraid now.

The IPCC finds this data inconvenient.  They don't want to put the 15-year lack of warming out there in public because, in the words of German Green Party politician Herman Ott, "Climate policy needs the element of fear," so that politicians can pursue "rigorous climate policies."

#1 Management principle

John Maxwell has been training leaders and writing books about leadership for decades, speaking to corporations all over the world.  Total in sales of his books is over 19,000,000 according to wikipedia.

When he talks about what leaders do, he's got my attention.  What is most important?

"Modeling provides the basis of all true leadership.  Leaders must set the example for their followers.  The number one management principle in the world is this:  people do what people see. "

Goliath's condition

Author and journalist Malcolm Gladwell writes books.  Some were on the NY Times Bestseller lists, including a couple you might have heard of, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Make a Big Difference and Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking.

There's a new medical theory regarding the Biblical story of David and Goliath that is the subject of his new book.

Reading people

Ever wondered if you are reading people's emotions accurately?  "Well" blog at NYTimes.com has a 36-question quiz for you - look at photos of people's eyes and see if you can discern what they are feeling.
http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/03/well-quiz-the-mind-behind-the-eyes/

Humans ≠ just animals

(cont'd)

So David Attenborough thinks, as does Agent Smith from "The Matrix," that humanity multiplies in an environmental niche until the food supply is exhausted and the population declines because of mass starvation; then they go to another environmental niche and do the same (yesterday's post).

But in actuality, many places on earth support much higher numbers of people per acre than is the case in Ethiopia (which he gives as an example of the starvation syndrome).  This demonstrates that humans are not limited to the natural offerings of the environment they occupy, but are often able to use whatever resources they find to make it life-sustaining: creation as a function of imago dei.

And, population is declining rather than wildly multiplying in most of the world today -  on continents like North America and Europe, where mass starvation isn't remotely a problem.

It doesn't take much to refute Attenborough's and "Smith"'s false claim.  Humans are not just animals, or a plague, or a virus.

"Humans = just animals"

What do Agent Smith and Sir David Attenborough (public tv nature shows) have in common?





David Attenborough, as quoted in the U.K. Telegraph:

“We are a plague on the Earth. It’s coming home to roost over the next 50 years or so. It’s not just climate change; it’s sheer space, places to grow food for this enormous horde. Either we limit our population growth or the natural world will do it for us, and the natural world is doing it for us right now,” he told the Radio Times.

"Sending food aid to Africa to solve  the famine crisis is ‘barmy’, Sir David Attenborough said,"
(Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2424129/)

(cont'd tomorrow)

Humans ≠ bacteria

(cont'd)

Bacteria in a petri dish can multiply beyond the capacity of the petri dish to sustain them.  But people are not in that predicament with regard to the earth's capacity to sustain them.  People have been throughout history in the process of coaxing more and more capacity out of the same planet.

In fact, the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization estimates that the predicted population of nine billion on earth by 2050 should be no problem to sustain - provided that social systems involving trade and security keep up.

Erle Ellis,  professor at U of Maryland and at Harvard University, says that humans have never in their history been only at the mercy of the natural environment.

"The idea that humans must live within the natural environmental limits of our planet denies the realities of our entire history, and most likely the future. Humans are niche creators.  [See yesterday's post.]  We transform ecosystems to sustain ourselves. This is what we do and have always done. 

"Our planet’s human-carrying capacity emerges from the capabilities of our social systems and our technologies more than from any environmental limits."

"The only limits to creating a planet that future generations will be proud of are our imaginations and our social systems."  (cont'd tomorrow)

Humans = niche creators

Thomas Malthus in 1798 predicted that humans would multiply on the earth until the earth could no longer sustain them.  Paul and Anne Ehrlich in 1970 published The Population Bomb which predicted, on the basis of Malthus, global starvation during the 1970's and 80's.  The book has been quite discredited (check customer reviews).

What did they miss?  Because this does happen among animals, like the vole population (a sort of mouse) which can outpace their food supply.  

As Eric Metaxas puts it, people are "More Than Voles."  Created by their own Creator to create, humans can create their own niche to support themselves.  Homo sapiens are not utterly dependent on the natural environment, but can create wealth.  

According to the materialist (there is no supernatural) worldview, humans are only animals. According to the Christian worldview, humans bear the likeness of their Creator.  God gave humans "the intelligence to complete the work of creation . . for their own good and that of their neighbors."

(cont'd tomorrow)

Bombs fell on NC

Two huge hydrogen bombs fell out of a plane over North Carolina.  A surfer's camera accidentally took a picture of a great white shark right below him.  A Soviet submarine captain ordered a nuclear torpedo to be fired on the U.S.

The bombs didn't explode, the shark didn't bite, and the captain's order was countermanded.  Author Eric Metaxas suggests that divine providence guards us from those near-misses that  we had no idea about.  

Ben Franklin asked the American constitutional convention to pray about their decisions with this rationale: “[T]the longer I live, the more convincing proofs I see of this truth—that God governs in the affairs of men."

Introvert at a party

Since quiet people can be overwhelmed by noise and lots of people and social stimulation, it might be good to have a party-survival strategy!  Here's some practical steps that might help: