Only 3% of the world's population lives in a country with rising population; the rest of us live in countries whose population is declining. That 3% lives in Africa and in the Middle East, while more industrialized nations around the world are either going to lose people or are already losing them.
A birth rate of 2.1 births per woman is required to maintain a stable population. In Germany, the total fertility rate is 1.42 births per woman. The rest of Europe is also well below 2.1, and Japan and China are even lower.
Central and South America have seen their birth rates tumble from previously high numbers down to 2.1 - 2.8 and they're expected to descend further before very long.
Serious consequences are probably unavoidable because this is a cultural thing that exists in the minds of people, a choice. It's not because of a temporary thing like war or disease: it's the choice of reproducing-age adults all over the world.
(from What To Expect When No One's Expecting)
No comments:
Post a Comment