EV Competitor 3

(cont'd from last Friday's post)

Cars made in China are not banned in the U.S. But the last administration placed a 100% tariff on them in 2024, meaning the price of the car for an American buyer would in effect double. They also created software and technology restrictions. The two factors keep China-manufactured cars out of the U.S. market.

But Mexico seems to welcome them. BYD had plans to build an EV factory there, plans which are now on hold until they know what the current U.S. administration will do about trade policies. 

If BYD goes ahead with the plant, Mexico will gain 10,000 new jobs. But BYD will do more than that. The country has only ~3,000 public charging stations for electric vehicles. BYD's car sales will increase by a factor of 6, and Mexico has some serious catching up to do if those EV's are going to be charged.

Chinese firms know how to do it. They are already working with in-country firms to build renewable energy infrastructure, and have already invested a total of about a billion dollars.

China has gotten its foot in the door. We'll follow the story of the BYD plant in Mexico.

from USNews and Atlantic Council

EV Competitor 2

Follow up to this post

Ford Motors' CEO is worried about their market share: "We are in a global competition with China. And if we lose this, we do not have a future at Ford." It's not just Ford, but the whole car industry in America.

Those are strong words, very similar to Elon Musk's: “Frankly, if there are not trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world.”

Chinese electric car makers (about 130 companies) are a growing threat to American car makers. They've "studied American inventions, replicated them, and arguably surpassed them, selling them at scarily-cheap prices around the world." In the U.S., that price would be roughly $10k lower than Tesla.

Their EV leader, BYD, overtook Tesla in global sales in Q4 of 2023 (image). A writer for InsideEV's likes BYD's interior and software integration better than Tesla's, and says they're quieter too.

Some governments, including the U.S., worry that Chinese EV's cameras and sensors may collect data to pass on to their military. 

From "China Is Overtaking America. In an Electric Car."

Big turbine

China has the largest wind turbine in the world. It's been operating since 2023, and it produces more electricity than any other. Here's a picture of it among smaller ones in the sea:

But the scale isn't easy to grasp in this photo. You don't readily see that the hub is as tall as a 50-story building. The rotor diameter, that is the width of the circle swept by the rotating blades, is longer than two football fields at 827 feet.

Whenever its usefulness is done, its tough and huge blades will probably be processed into road-building asphalt or concrete. That's what China has started doing to mitigate the problem of recycling wind turbine blades.

from Electrik

Open Doors 2

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

For reasons related to their faith, 4,998 Christians across the world were actually murdered. An amazing 83% of those were located in Nigeria, "the deadliest place to follow Jesus." (Deadly danger is nothing new in Nigeria, as I've written about for years.)

Attacks on churches and Christian-run schools, hospitals, cemeteries "exploded" to 14,766 in 2023, six times the number in the previous year. That number includes the closing of churches in China (church bombed in 2019) and mob violence in India. The global number of believers forced to flee their homes because of war or extremism doubled last year to 295,120. 

Though not in the first ten of the World Watch List, the African country Congo (DRC) was the site just days ago of terrible violence on July 24. More than 57 Christian villagers were beheaded by Islamic State Central Africa Province.

Open Doors was founded to pay attention to these things around the world; to help them, and to inform the West where we know next to nothing of the price some Christians pay to follow Jesus.

(cont'd tomorrow)

All seeing eye

Back in 2018, the Chinese President Xi's "social credit system" was rolling out. It's a way to control behavior, thoughts, relationships, status of Chinese citizens without actually resorting to coercive violence on them. (Read posts here, here, here, here, here, here.)

Government-owned cameras are spying everywhere, providing data which result in approval or disapproval. Ordinary life is a lot harder on people with a low social credit score.

This immigrant was there but fled to America for freedom. He warns that we're starting to see similar things in the West. For instance, parents who don't like what their kids are learning at school were labeled domestic terrorists, and our government pressured banks not to give loans to disfavored businesses.

He says it was okay at the beginning: "These things always are."

Ghost towns

From empty homes to empty towns . . 

photo

A community of 260 mansions was begun 400 miles north of Beijing in 2010. Intended for the Chinese elite class, these palatial homes are empty. Not one has been bought by the rich. Cattle wander among the arched verandas, and garages serve for hay storage. Inside are what looks like marble floors and crystal chandeliers. Nearby are a complex of ~15-story apartment buildings that will probably never be finished. 

China is in the midst of its own real estate crisis. Its biggest residential real estate developer declared bankruptcy last August. They had pre-sold 1.2 million units, but 800,000 of them will not be finished.

An aging population is part of the problem along with other reasons like the Covid pandemic. Maybe the world is starting to suffer from the effects of falling birth rates.

from Architectural Digest

Air taxi 2

(cont'd from Monday's post)

Air taxis will now be tested in China, a recent development. Ehang has been granted permission to run trial operations of its eVTOL in a city yet to be determined.

It occurs to me to wonder if all the ideas, the technology, in the design of this eVTOL came from Ehang . . .

from Bloomberg

More speed 2

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

At this point, the hyperloop concept is going nowhere here in the US. But the potential is still alive, maybe, in China.

photo

A maglev train was tested successfully in a "low-vacuum" tube 1.2 miles long. Its velocity wasn't reported but may have been as high as 387 miles per hour, much faster than existing high speed rail. 

More testing is the next step. "If it's successful, it could be the next potential solution for high-speed travel across relatively short distances."

from MSN

Stealing IP #3

 (cont'd from yesterday's post)

While testing some turbines in China, American Super Conductor found that they were running on new code which AMSC had not released yet. They investigated Dejan because he was one of the few who had confidential access, and then found the emails which told the whole story.

image

Sinovel, their biggest client, cancelled all its millions of dollars' worth of orders (of course it did). Dejan confessed and spent a year in Austrian prison. AMSC suffered market value loss of over a billion dollars and had to let 600 employees go out of their previous total of 900. It was devastating.

Afterward, cyber attacks kept coming. AMSC hired a computer security firm, which discovered that the attacks were now coming from a Chinese military unit tasked with spying on North American companies. Thousands of American companies have lost "engineering documents, manufacturing processes, chip designs, telecommunications, pharmaceutical, you name it it's been stolen."

from The Great Brain Robbery

Stealing IP #2

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Imagine this scenario. You have some ideas for a great tech product. You start your company and hire some engineers to develop those ideas. You find clients who really want your product and are happy to purchase it from you. You keep figuring out more ways to help your clients and take care of your employees.

After decades of research and experiment at your company, someone takes your valuable results and gives them away. That's stealing intellectual property. 

That's pretty much how it was for American Super Conductor. They spent years and millions of dollars developing advanced software for the operation of wind turbines. After China in 2005 passed a law calling for wind farms, AMSC contracted with the Chinese company Sinovel to provide the required gadgetry and computer code to them while they would do the physical building of the wind turbines.

An AMSC employee (Dejan) working in their Austria office was seduced by the Chinese. An email showed his demands: "All girls need money. I need girls. Sinovel needs me." Sinovel executives were glad to comply.

from The Great Brain Robbery

(cont'd tomorrow)

Stealing IP

A grand jury just indicted a former Google engineer for stealing intellectual property. Over 500 confidential files of Google's ideas (mind work) were stolen for Chinese companies. 

image

He was arrested last week in California for stealing trade secrets relating to AI technology and could receive up to ten years in prison and a fine of $250k for each of the four counts of theft.

Hired in 2019, with access to confidential information, he started uploading hundreds of files into his personal account in 2022. He was soon offered the position of chief technology officer in a new Chinese startup dealing with artificial intelligence. He founded another Chinese startup to train "large AI models powered by supercomputing chips." 

Surveillance camera footage showed somebody else faking his identity at Google's entrance while he was in China. He resigned last December.

from Ars Technica

The mother lode

Rare earths are essential for the manufacture of modern technology products. They're not common or abundantly found on earth. When you put together those two factors, essential and uncommon, it means that manufacturers will pay a high price to get them.

China is the main source of rare earths. That means China makes a lot of money from supplying them to manufacturers, and it means that they can manipulate this advantage for political goals.

photo

But all of this may change because the "mother lode" of rare earths, the largest deposit ever found, has been discovered--and it's not in China. It's in the US, in the state of Wyoming.

"If wisely exploited, this find—estimated to be the richest in the world—will give the U.S. an unparalleled economic and geopolitical edge against China and Russia for the foreseeable future."

from WSJ, "Wyoming Hits the Rare-Earth Mother Lode"

EV materials 2

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Nobody is ready to dispense with modern technology, in spite of problems with their components. Rare earth metals are essential in the motor (not the battery) of electric vehicles, as well as in lots of modern devices like smartphones and wind turbines. They can be both toxic to people and the  environment, and radioactive. 

Most global production of these elements is controlled by China which is moving to increase their hold on the global market. They can use their dominance to achieve political goals.

What's a company to do? They sure won't quit manufacturing modern tech.

General Motors says they are "deeply committed to an all-electric future," so last month they announced a plan to solve the dilemma of rare earths, replacing them with magnets from Niron Magnetics which are not toxic, cost less, and are US-made. Their "Clean Air Magnet" appears on TIME's list of 2023 best inventions.

China owns

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Chinese companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges come to a total of 252 as of last January, as reported here, valued at $1+ trillion. A list of them is here.

Little-known Chinese investments in the U.S. include Forbes magazine, founded in 1917 by the grandfather of the current Chairman and Editor-in-Chief, Steve Forbes. The family still owns 20%, but an investment group based in Hong Kong bought a majority share in 2014, with Steve keeping both of his titles. 

Real estate also seems to be China's target in addition to businesses. In 2021 they put $6 billion into U.S. housing, the most of any foreign country (Canada being second, India third). Mortgage rates are irrelevant, as most of these purchases are in cash. Land purchases have raised some alarms (here and here).

Why? It's suggested that China has a housing deficit, and that they need farmland for food production. But lawmakers wonder if this glut of investment in American property constitutes a potential national security threat.

photo

Start-ups→big

"Popsicle" started up back in 1922 with the idea from an eleven-year-old boy. He left a drink with a stick in it outside overnight in the winter, and you know what happened to the drink. As an adult, he started selling the product. Now everybody knows what a popsicle is.

photo

"7-11" was started by an average guy back in 1954. He named it for the hours they were open. Who hasn't been to a 7-11?

"Gerber" was started back in 1927, when an entrepreneur started selling the baby foods his wife was making. 

All American companies . . when they started. All three now belong to owners in other countries, and so do a lot of other well-known American brands including IBM, Holiday Inn, Ben & Jerry's.

China is a major factor in American business, owning part or all of these: General Motors, Starplex Cinema, Hilton Hotels, and lots more.

from Street Insider

Buy up land 2

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Concern and suspicion about the land purchase near Travis AFB are not unique to the California congressman. People want to know who this buyer is, and specifically if China is behind it.

Concern is rising about the China's growing real estate purchases in various parts of the U.S. That's because China is viewed as an aggressive competitor of ours, at least, and maybe an actual enemy. People don't like it when a purchase is near a military base.

It's come up before. A Chinese company bought 300 acres twenty miles down the road from Grand Forks Air Force Base (North Dakota). They tried to set up a milling plant last year, but there was opposition, including politicians from both parties. 

An Air Force officer commented, “Some of the most sensitive elements of Grand Forks exist with the digital uplinks and downlinks inherent with unmanned air systems and their interaction with space-based assets.”

Said one senator, “I think we grossly underappreciate how effective they are at collecting information, collecting data, using it in nefarious ways.”

photo of Grand Forks city council meeting

The city of Grand Forks didn't approve the mill. But the land still belongs to the Chinese company, and people are not happy about it.

from CNBC

Buy up land 1

Somebody bought land around three sides of Travis Air Force Base in California. The farmers who sold it were not really interested in selling, but negotiation eventually brought them an offer way above market value. In the end, they couldn't refuse the negotiated selling price, $800 million. So the land was sold to Flannery Associates.

photo

Now, they're being sued by the buyer who claims that they illegally colluded to drive up the selling price. Odd.

But wait, there's more. A congressman from the area triggered a federal investigation of the whole thing because it doesn't make sense. He asks, what does Flannery plan to do with the land? Why were they willing to pay such a high price? Why were they so anxious to buy the land that they paid 5-10x what it's worth? 

Then, the biggest question: who is Flannery Associates anyway? It should be easy to find out who is involved - just google it. Or, maybe an important person can go through certain channels to get the information. 

But no. After months of investigation, neither the local nor the federal government was able to find out. What, the government isn't important enough and resourceful enough to get answers?? That's more than odd.

from ABC11

(cont'd tomorrow)

New deposit 1

Electric vehicles (EV) need it for their batteries. Solar panels need it, and so do computer chips. As the world develops new/green technologies, phosphorus is needed in greater amounts and for more applications.

It's important for man-made fertilizer, which enables high agricultural productivity, which is one reason why fewer people on earth today go hungry compared to the rest of human history. China is the biggest consumer of phosphate fertilizer in the world, followed by India in second place. China also is the biggest producer of phosphate fertilizer, making nearly 4x as much as is made in second-place U.S. (2018 statistics).

image

Europe has been nervous about its supply of phosphorus since it's almost entirely dependent on imports, and the countries exporting it are not great friends of the EU: Russia, China, Iraq, and Syria. Politics could easily threaten their supply chain.

So, a recently discovered huge new deposit of phosphorus rock may give the EU some peace of mind about supply . . because it's located right in Europe--in Norway.

from Independent

(cont'd tomorrow)

Global coal 2

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

According to this forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA), China's production of coal in 2024 will increase by 57 million tons (Mt) over its 2021 production.

India's increase over the same time is expected to be 162 million tons (Mt).

Reductions in coal production by other countries won't come close to making up for these huge increases. 

from "The Future of Coal Production (2021-2024)"

Big Brother 2

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

China is quite open about surveillance. The government monitors almost everything people do on the internet or their phones, and local units are putting up hundreds of millions of cameras that use facial recognition artificial intelligence (AI).

Now totalitarian rulers have a new tool to use: "Data and social scientists from the University of Chicago have developed a new algorithm that forecasts crime . . ." Breakthrough! "The model can predict future crimes one week in advance with about 90% accuracy." How convenient.

Similarly, "Scientists at China’s Comprehensive National Science Center in Hefei claim to have developed mind-reading artificial intelligence that measures the loyalty of Chinese Communist Party members."

image

Mind-reading algorithms? Crime predicting algorithms? What opportunity for abuse. "They will surely be used to falsely imprison political enemies . . to blackmail people for real or imagined misdeeds."

from Mind Matters