Monday, October 21, 2013

"Therefore" demographics

Predictions for the future are never completely accurate because nobody actually knows the future, but let's assume for the moment that the maps and predictions of the Rand Organization (last Friday's post) turn out to be pretty good.

What will society look like by the year 2050?

For Germany, South Korea, other European countries, Japan - there will be more older people (over 60 years old) than people of working age.  This is the most acute situation.  It varies, but every country will have relatively more older people than they do now, and many will have fewer people working.

Therefore . .  if these older people are dependent on society for financial support (entitlements and other aid), every working-age person on average will in effect have to create enough wealth to support him/herself and one older person.  That sounds like a hefty burden.  Add children.  What are the chances they can do that?

If you are 23 years old or older now, you will be in the older people category by 2050.  Hopefully you're making plans to stay fit & healthy and to create some wealth - because it looks like entitlements will have to retreat from today's levels.


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