Thursday, May 9, 2013

Less people means less wealth

Younger people try risky entrepreneurial innovation far more than older people do, so growth of total wealth in the society slows down as younger people make up a smaller percentage of population.  Meanwhile there will be a higher percentage of older people who will need support as they leave their wealth-creating years.

That's a net loss of overall wealth for society (the "economic pie"), leading to inevitable change in entitlement programs.  You may know that Social Security payments to current payees are supported by current workers' taxes.  In 1940 there were 150 workers for every retiree, then 16.5 workers in 1950, and by 2010 "just 2.9 workers were paying for the benefits of each retiree."

China's famous one-child policy has been successful to the point that their total fertility rate is 1.55.  Its "population will soon get very old and then begin to rapidly contract:  By 2050 the country's population will be falling by 20 million every five years; one out of every four citizens will be over the age of 65."  They've started to see labor shortage.

From What to Expect When No One's Expecting

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