Wednesday, May 8, 2013

"Less people" reversal

You'd think that paying citizens to have children would work.  But the examples of Japan and Singapore show that people usually can't be bribed into having babies.  Despite offers like huge cash payments and tax credits, the number of Singapore babies just kept plummeting downward.  Today Singapore's total fertility rate is 1.1.  There is no historical example of replacement rate coming back from a sustained loss of this kind.

Author Jonathan Last (of What to Expect When No One's Expecting) has some suggestions for the U.S.    It seems clear that many people don't want (more) children, but truly choose careers/income/lifestyle instead, delaying (at least) marriage and kids.   So he says we should make it easier for the ones who do want them with changes to the university system and highway system, more work from home, and even multi-generational homes.

One more strategy has to do with those parts of America in which the total fertility rate is still at or close to replacement level:  those parts are also the most religious.  
" . . it is important we preserve the role of religion in our public square, resisting those critics who see theocracy lurking behind every corner.  Our government should be welcoming of, not hostile to, believers - if for no other reason than they're the ones who create most of the future taxpayers."

Reversal of the global trend to very low birth rate - is it possible?  Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore said in 1983 that it was too late to turn back the clock "and have our women go back to their primary role as mothers, the creators and protectors of the next generation."

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