Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Consequences of less people

For decades in America, urban planning has meant (very roughly) organizing the building up of cities for more people.  This is not the mission in Germany.  They're working on shrinking cities.

Hoyerswerda near the Polish border has lost half its population in the last 30 years.  "The main job of Hoyerswerda's government these days is demolishing abandoned buildings," and a third of housing has already been torn down.  By 2050, it's expected that one of every three people (including little kids) in Germany will be over 65.  Picture what that will look like.

In Japan, the government has for many years been paying its citizens to have more children without successfully moving the birth rate up to replacement level (2.1 babies per woman).  Many programs, but the total fertility rate is still only 1.39 babies per woman.  Way, way below replacement.

"Because of its dismal fertility rate, Japan's population peaked in 2008; it has already shrunk by a million since then . .  At the current fertility rate, by 2100 Japan's population will be less than half what it is now."  Picture what that would look like.   Sociologist Masahiro Yamada coined a new term:  Parasaito shinguru, or "parasite single."  Harsh words for a working woman who lives with her parents and spends her entire paycheck on trendy clothes, travel, restaurants - instead of building a family.

Governments and policy makers are thinking things through, even though the consequences may not show up in your life for a while.

From What to Expect When No One's Expecting

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