Unintended 5

When bureaucrats and politicians consider what policy option will best serve the people, they must ask this question: "What will happen if we choose this policy?"

Disease experts were consulted when the coronavirus became an epidemic. They said, "Shut down everything." Were child and family experts asked what would happen if everything was locked down? Were business and economics experts asked the question? Were environmentalists asked? Or was the decision knee-jerk, with too many unintended consequences?

In March of 2020 the government of Kenya restricted travel as a pandemic measure. Tourism was wiped out (9% of their economy) and lots of jobs were lost. Poor and hungry locals are killing giraffes to survive. 

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About a hundred million people around the world were pushed back into extreme poverty by measures taken to deal with the pandemic. That's real human suffering.  And even the environment will suffer. People must survive before they can work on preserving their natural environment. 

Studies will be done to analyze whether massive lockdowns were the best strategy to preserve life and mitigate suffering. Maybe some things (like schools) should have been left open. Hopefully something has been learned for the next time.

Unintended 7

Results of the widespread lockdown during Covid are still being studied. Unintended consequences descended heavily on children, including mental health issues.

Learning progress declined when schools were shut down according to the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) despite the Zoom alternative where kids could still watch virtual classes on their computers. 

A study has been completed by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University to assess how that loss of learning will affect both the students themselves and their states economically. Overall, for instance, the state of California will lose GDP of $1.7 trillion because it.

But persons who were in school during the pandemic lockdowns will feel it personally. When all factors are considered over their earning lifetime, the financial loss resulting from the learning loss could amount to $70,000 less (than what they would have made).

from Economic Loss of the Pandemic

Unintended 3a

Business slowed during the pandemic lockdowns; retail shops often closed; people stayed home and they stopped buying things. Wait . . no, they didn't exactly stop buying everything. Overall they spent less, yes, but not nothing.

Exercise equipment for home use actually saw more sales. No surprise there, since most people had much more home time for one reason or another. Sales of electronics also rose, plus equipment of all kinds for home offices. 

A lot of that merchandise is brought into the U.S. by container ship. So there's another unintended, unforeseen consequence of the lockdown:  big logjam. Thirty container ships per day have sat at anchor waiting to be unloaded just off Los Angeles, while the normal number is zero or one (says the Executive Director of the Los Angeles Port, in video below).

Seaboard imports started surging in the U.S. last summer as retailers tried to re-stock depleted inventories. Last fall there were 57 more cargo ships than normal. Ships backed up, too, because many workers in the transport system (trains, trucks, terminals, etc.) were sick or at home due to contact tracing.

(cont'd tomorrow)

Unintended 6

Follow-up to this thread

As we get more distance from the pandemic, research can reveal side effects of the actions we took. It's important to look back and ask whether we're satisfied with the results of government policies during that time 2020-2021. What exactly happened?

One such study was just published this month by the American Medical Association. Alcohol-related deaths increased in 2020 compared to 2019 by 25%, a rate much higher than the previous year's increase of about 2%.

Common sense might have expected something like this: more drinking to cope with job losses and lockdowns, even to the point that many died.

Another unintended consequence. Something to remember next time lockdowns are suggested for our health.

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Unintended 4

Lockdowns of businesses, churches, schools started over a year ago and have been in reversal for  only a couple of months. Many children have been living without their friends and teachers, more alone with their computer screens than is good for them. The global rise in childhood mental health issues is another unintended consequence of radical lockdowns.

A pediatric hospital in Paris reports a doubling of kids needing care after suicide attempts since last September. Other alarming behavior includes running into traffic, covering themselves with disinfectant gel, scrubbing their hands raw, obsessing about infection, slowly starving, panic attacks. 

Pablo was weakened by months of barely eating and drinking when his parents rushed him to that Paris hospital - another "child coming apart amid the tumult of the coronavirus crisis." A year is a very, very long time for young children. They may not have the context or optimism to expect a happy ending any time soon.

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An ER doctor in northern England said, "This is an international epidemic and we are not recognizing it." Pablo's father sums it up this way, "It is a real nightmare to have a child who is destroying himself."

from AP News

Unintended 1

We've had a whole year of locked down businesses, events, holidays, jobs, fundraisers, celebrations, graduations, etc. A lockdown of this magnitude was never tried before, so no one knew exactly what would result from such a policy. The results are coming to light.

It seems there was an effect on housing availability. My son, in the market for a new home, ran across a startling article. Within 24 hours of going on the market, the house below generated 133 requests for showings. A total of 32 competing offers were soon received. 

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It sounds insane, as the article subtitle states. The real estate agent says he's never seen anything like this in his 17 years of experience. To secure their purchase, buyers offer cash, make offers well over asking price, forego inspections. I think the word "desperate" was used.

A reason for this craziness? The number of homes on the market in our area is only about half of the number a year ago. With so many working at home, apparently a lot of us are looking for a change - but more are hanging on to what they've got.

It's just one of the unintended consequences of those pandemic strategies. There will be more.

from BringMeTheNews

"Reckless" green policy

Germany's Spiegel Online International has only criticism for their government's green energy policies:

"Germany's aggressive and reckless expansion of wind and solar power has come with a hefty price tag for consumers, and the costs often fall disproportionately on the poor. Government advisors are calling for a completely new start."

Consumers already pay more for electricity in Germany than in any other European nation, and the cost is going to go up another 20%.  More carbon was released into the atmosphere in 2012 than in 2011.  A steel mill may be asked to shut down to protect the grid when there is a shortage of electricity.  These unintended consequences please nobody.

photo:  www.spiegel.de

"When Stefan Becker . . of the Catholic charity Caritas makes a house call, he likes to bring along a few energy-saving bulbs. Many residents still use old light bulbs, which consume a lot of electricity but are cheaper than newer bulbs. 'People here have to decide between spending money on an expensive energy-saving bulb or a hot meal,' says Becker. In other words, saving energy is well and good -- but only if people can afford it."

from:  Spiegel Online International 09.04.2013, "Germany's Energy Poverty: How Electricity Became a Luxury Good"

Bad help

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

It seems that Haiti has been the scene of misguided charity and unintended consequences.

Andreas Widmer of Switzerland says that surplus, subsidized rice from rich countries has been dumped on Haiti with the result of massive job losses and economic collapse. Jacob Donatien, Haitian farmer, says "That situation completely destroyed us."

 "We made this devil's bargain on rice, and it wasn't the right thing to do," said former Pres. Clinton speaking of his government's actions toward Haiti. "We should have continued to help them be self-sufficient in agriculture."

Charity in humanitarian emergency situations is welcome. But Haitian Daniel Jean Louis says the NGO's should know when to leave, otherwise "A short-term natural disaster turns into a long-term un-natural disaster."

~from award-winning documentary "Poverty, Inc."

(cont'd tomorrow)

Unintended 2

If you're able to do your job from a laptop, you probably didn't lose income during the pandemic lockdowns the way so many others - anybody who had to be there in person - did. You worked through the last year at home. For a lot of you, this looks to become the new normal.

Big cities were hit hard. Without tens of thousands of workers coming into central business districts, small shops that used to serve them won't re-start. Demand for big city real estate declined. The aggregate market value of Manhattan's large real estate management firms dropped by $6.5 billion. Big companies might need maybe half the office space when their employees only come in a couple of times per week.

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Manhattan's economy was sustained by 1.6 million commuters every day. About 90% of its office workers are still working remotely. Because rents and occupancy are down, the city has lost tax revenue (an expected $5 billion deficit next year). But don't worry, we're all going to help them out with taxpayer money. NYC will receive almost $6 billion from the federal stimulus package, plus another $4 billion for their public schools.

from AEI 

from NYT

US poverty? 2

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

America does not ignore the poor who can't afford housing, food, medical care, etc. A huge 51% of our annual federal spending goes to entitlements. But those benefits are not counted in the poverty statistics you saw yesterday for some reason.

That's the first important point of yesterday's video: the actual percentage of people in the US who lack basic needs is about 3%, not 10-18%. (That means 23 million to 60 million fewer people in the US live that way.) Though their earned income is under the poverty point, government payments lift their lifestyle out of poverty.

We don't want millions of our fellow citizens to lack the necessities, so we're happy to help. That's the motivation behind the American "safety net." 

Unfortunately, there's an unintended consequence of the welfare system, explained very well in yesterday's video. A significant number of people content themselves with dependence rather than using their lives productively. Surprisingly, that includes about 7 million men of working age. Not good for America--devastating for those men.

Masks and NYT

Governmental orders to wear masks did not impede the spread of the covid pandemic. Mask mandates didn't achieve their purpose according to the New York Times. Unnecessarily isolating and hiding people from each other was an unintended consequence.

Finally mainstream media is publishing a correction. In this case, government policy did not "follow the science."

The science was published way early in the pandemic by 239 scientists. Why did the World Health Organization (WHO) not follow it? 

"Follow the science!" is the demand you sometimes hear from experts, who may not always be right. Questions and civil debate are never out of order! Cancel culture wants to shout down all challenges - Twitter and Youtube are just two examples. But we need free speech, to make sure that truth is not suppressed.

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Fewer women at the top

The question raised in the last post was, "How can it be that societies like Sweden, where gender equity is relentlessly pursued and enforced, have fewer female managers, executives, professionals, and business owners than the laissez-faire United States?"

Swedish economists Magnus Henrekson and Mikael Stenkula suggest this answer: “Broad-based welfare-state policies impede women’s representation in elite competitive positions.”

In Sweden, a parent has the right to work just six hours per day when (s)he returns to work following  the 16-month parental leave.  Extended leave and part-time hours allow more time to parent those children    -and they diminish the likelihood of upper level responsibility.  Move-up opportunity tends to come to those who give more to the job, understandably.

Author Christina Hoff Sommers says, "Generous parental leave policies and readily available part-time options have unintended consequences: instead of strengthening women’s attachment to the workplace, they appear to weaken it."  Read her article here.

One more observation should be made in connection with this story.

Climate fear 6

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Not much has been said in media about those two methods (yesterday's post) that could mitigate global warming, sun screens and solar power generators in space. But if Chinese scientists do put the latter into effect soon, media will have to report it and we'll hear about it.

More methods are mentioned in Weathering Climate Change which might help prolong our climate stability.

Aerosols could be injected into the stratosphere to reduce global warming by 1.5 degrees C. Harvard University has such an experiment in its future plans. It could be somewhat cheaper, thus more doable, but there might be unintended consequences.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) could be filtered from the atmosphere and stored underground. The technology exists but is expensive.

Various agricultural changes have been suggested such as reform of rice paddy management and red meat alternatives. Ross doesn't mention Allan Savory's work, but I think it should be considered. 

Unintended 3b

 (cont'd from yesterday's post)

The bottleneck is creating delays for customers waiting to get their purchase. To ease customer disappointment, exercise equipment company Peloton plans to spend $100 million just on transportation including air shipments in the first half of this year. Expenses like these may raise retail prices. Small retailers can't afford air shipments.

Average size of these container ships is also growing bigger, so they carry more containers. The ship below is the largest on the seas, a quarter-mile long and capable of carrying up to 21,000 containers each of which is about 20' by 8' by 8.5' in size. Each of those boxes in the photo is about the size of a twenty-foot room.

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Picture a ship like this in a storm at sea.

Unintended 3c

Higher retail customer demand, along with reduced efficiency in the transport side of the business, is putting a lot of pressure on those container shipping companies (here and here). Some suggest that safety standards have been stretched in the big effort to get merchandise where it needs to go.

The weight of a loaded container ship seems enormous when you try to get a sense of scale. The new, bigger ships are huge and look top-heavy and vulnerable to big ocean waves. The biggest loss of containers ever in one incident happened just last November.

During a storm in the Pacific, 1900 containers were lost over the side or damaged on the One Apus. That's more than the average number of containers lost in a whole year by all container ships. 

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Wave height combined with distance between the waves (~equal to the length of the ship) can produce  violent instability, a phenomenon known as parametric rolling. The accident investigation to come may identify that as the cause.

from Old Salt Blog

Two-child

China's notorious restriction on families has been lifted - the famous "one-child" rule is no more. Couples are now allowed by the Communist Party to have two children. It's an effort to correct some unintended consequences that have shown up during 30 years under "one-child."

Population has decreased to the point where the elder portion of the population is booming, coupled with a declining number of working-age people to support them. A second effect is a big imbalance in gender. For every 100 girls born, there are 115+  boys born.

Under "Central planning", the state or elites will make many of your decisions for you. Ex: how many children you will have.

(cont'd Monday)