U.S. below 2.1

If you've been reading this blog for a while, you're familiar with the topic label "Demography" (to the right, definition link). Read those posts, and you'll find that birth rate per woman in The West is uniformly going down, while in Africa it's high above replacement rate.

Here are figures for 224 nations from the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) for 2015. No surprise, European countries' birth rates are all below the rate necessary to maintain current populations (France are Ireland are highest among them).

The surprise in this data is that America's birth rate is now below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. It's the first time I've seen that.

"if the trend persists, it could mean lower living standards for most Americans in the future," as it will in every nation that stays below 2.1. Why? Because "It's generally true that most people produce more than they consume."

Read this story about one millennial couple who chose marriage and babies in their early 20's. They buck the trend.

Rescuers

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Maybe neighborly volunteers are not being completely ignored by media, as the author in yesterday's post claimed. Here's an article about the "Cajun navy" who have answered the call to help flood victims.

They're civilians who launch their own boat or even canoe to go down the flooded streets looking for ways to help people (and animals).

Troy went to the National Guard staging area, said "I'm here to help. Where do you need me?" He spent two days in his boat pulling folks out of their houses.

Terry saw flood water rising fast, so he jumped in his car and drove down the street laying on his horn to wake people out of their sleep.

David rescued a woman and her dog from a car that plunged under water.

As the flood recedes, urgent rescues give way to the problems of cleaning up the mud and new breeding of mosquitoes.

(from CNN)

Neighborly

Must it be that only bad news makes headlines and gets on tv nightly news? A case could be made for that conclusion (because "bad news sells") since - as we know - news networks are in the business of selling their version of events.

This author makes that point but also tries to correct coverage of the Louisiana floods by reporting on ordinary neighborly efforts to help.

"In order to be worthy of attention . . news media requires scenes that resemble a zombie apocalypse, not scores of hometown heroes trying their best to rescue one another" by:

*organizing care packages
*allowing people to sleep in their homes
*fishermen running rescues

(cont'd tomorrow)

Annual break

This is the week of the annual break. I hope you enjoy the rest of your summer! Blog posts will resume on Monday, August 29.

Africa's hands

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Though some of the poorest people on earth live there, not everything is going wrong for the people of Africa. Out of a population of 1.2 billion people, the continent has about 163,000 millionaires. 

Among them are some passionate philanthropists, whose name is not Gates or Winfrey. "Instead of importing ideas from abroad, organizations like the African Women’s Development Fund, which gives grants to entrepreneurial females, are focused on investing in local solutions."

"African benefactors have a deep knowledge of the places in which they invest . . says Jane Wales, CEO of the World Affairs Council." They don't want to copy Western philanthropy, but reinvent it to work effectively in their own context.

Ndidi Nwuneli, director of African Philanthropy Forum, says "Africa's future is now in the hands of Africa."

Not stupid

"The people here [African continent] are not stupid. They are just disconnected from global trade. That's all."

"What I want is when we produce, especially the rice we grow here, instead of the international community sending us rice, we would like to export to them. This is the desire of my heart."

"The NGO's [non-government organizations] they do some help but . . they try to find ways to keep giving away free stuff. As if they didn't want [us] to stand up for ourselves."

The poor in developing countries were created in the image of God, full of dreams and the need to create. Poverty Cure is there to enable them.

Bad help

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

It seems that Haiti has been the scene of misguided charity and unintended consequences.

Andreas Widmer of Switzerland says that surplus, subsidized rice from rich countries has been dumped on Haiti with the result of massive job losses and economic collapse. Jacob Donatien, Haitian farmer, says "That situation completely destroyed us."

 "We made this devil's bargain on rice, and it wasn't the right thing to do," said former Pres. Clinton speaking of his government's actions toward Haiti. "We should have continued to help them be self-sufficient in agriculture."

Charity in humanitarian emergency situations is welcome. But Haitian Daniel Jean Louis says the NGO's should know when to leave, otherwise "A short-term natural disaster turns into a long-term un-natural disaster."

~from award-winning documentary "Poverty, Inc."

(cont'd tomorrow)

Poverty, Inc.

"No one wants to be a beggar for life," according to the African at the end of this trailer. The good life is not to be fed and clothed by the work of others. It is rather to do good work, think, produce, dream, organize, create and accomplish - and then to freely trade what you have to offer with others. When you respect what you've done . . it's a good feeling.

 People of African nations are sending a signal to the global "aid" system that they don't want to be the pets of the rich in Europe and the United States.



If you had the choice, I think that you too would rather be a problem-solver, an achiever who is growing in skill and wisdom - than "a beggar for life."

Btw, remember this distinction - we're not talking about humanitarian emergency giving.

(cont'd tomorrow)

Trade

Trade enables us to enjoy better quality of life. If we couldn't trade with each other but had to make everything we need, we might starve to death. But if each of us is free to specialize, we all have a skill or product to trade (buy and sell) with people who have something we want.

That's really simplified, but true to the basic rationale behind trade.

What if you had to make your own, say, chicken sandwich from scratch? It would take much more than a couple of minutes at the fast food window. Here is one guy's personal experience with this idea.



It's easy to forget the work and organizing behind a simple product.

(cont'd tomorrow)

Michael eats

Swimming the butterfly stroke like Michael Phelps did Wednesday burns around 900 calories per hour for a man his size. Of course, probably not even he can do it for a whole hour but it reflects the fact that swimming competitively takes a lot of energy.

In 2008 while training for the Beijing Olympics, he was said to eat a whopping 12,000 calories a day. It's hard to picture what that looks like, so here's what he had for breakfast:

3 fried egg sandwiches loaded with cheese, lettuce, tomatoes, fried onions and mayo,
2 cups of coffee, 1 five-egg omelette, 1 bowl of grits, 3 slices of French toast topped with powdered sugar, 3 chocolate chip pancakes

Today he's 31, eight years older, and doesn't need the same amount of food. So his diet is down to about 3500 calories per day.

Michael lives

Those who love Michael Phelps - and all his worldwide admirers - almost lost him when he came close to self-destruction after the 2012 London Olympics. But he has a story to tell about his walk back to life worth living.

A significant role was played by his NFL friend Ray Lewis, who gave him the book Purpose Driven Life: What on Earth am I Here For? by Rick Warren. How fitting is that - a pastor tells him that he has value and purpose outside of his medals.

Aging America

Cultural change is very obvious today in America.  A different change is happening more slowly.

"[T]he U.S. is in the beginning stages of a massive and unprecedented demographic transformation. Between 2010 and 2040, the number of Americans age 65 and older will double, from 41 million to 82 million. 

"In 2000, there were 4.7 working age Americans (ages 20 to 64) for every person 65 or older. By 2040, there will be only 2.6 people of working age for every person 65 or older.

How old will you be in 2040? What will happen to health care and retirement income between now and then?  I'm eating greens and doing sit-ups.

Winners/Losers

Brazil is showcased while the world's attention is on Rio de Janeiro for the Olympics. But their image has been more crisis than glory. President Dilma Rousseff was taken out of office by the Brazilian senate in May, and they will vote whether to impeach her today - right in the middle of the Olympics. Awkward.

In 60 seconds, this video explains that the government has been picking winners and losers among Brazilian businesses, creating an unfair environment that holds down economic growth. In the Olympics, it would be like unfair judges who favor some athletes over others.

Can't make me

"Apparently if you ask employees to maintain a positive workplace, you are acting unlawfully. At least, that’s the National Labor Relations Board’s (NLRB) view of it."

Yes, the NLRB says that T-Mobile violated the law when its employee hand book required workers "to maintain a positive work environment in a manner that is conducive to effective working relationships.”

The NLRB is a federal agency whose board is made up of five people appointed by the president.

If only I had been on that board when the complaint came up. I would have said something like, "This is absurd. Next case please."

Inside NBA

Cable show "Inside the NBA" is hosted by Ernie Johnson, Jr., who won an Emmy award as "best studio host." Would I watch a show about professional basketball? Of course not - but for this post I did watch a few youtube clips and after that, well, maybe I would because it looks pretty fun.

Johnson is good at managing the fun with Shaquille O'Neal and Charles Barkley. But beyond the sports, Barkley describes him as having "uncommon courage and a pure heart."

A trailer for ESPN's profile story of Ernie is here. In 2006 he told his viewers that he'd been diagnosed with cancer. "What he then said still brings tears to a colleague’s eyes. After thanking his doctors and expressing his gratitude for the audience’s concern he said: “And [my family continues], as we always have, in both good times and bad, to place our faith in Jesus Christ, and to trust God . . . period.”

Souls in Iran

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

So the Iranian church is the fastest growing church in the world. Who? Who is it that is choosing to follow Jesus Christ in Iran? Here are the stories of 3 of them:

"Kamran was a violent man who used to sell drugs and weapons. One day, a friend gave him a New Testament. After reading for five consecutive days, Kamran gave his life to Jesus. When his family and friends saw his transformed life over the ensuing months, many of them also came to faith. A church now meets in Kamran’s house. 

"Reza was a mullah (a Muslim scholar) who hoped to become an ayatollah (a Shiite leader). One day, while studying at an Islamic seminary in Iran, he found a New Testament that had been boldly left in the library. Out of curiosity, he picked it up and was deeply shaken. Over time, he fell in love with Jesus. Today Reza is a trained church planter serving in the Iran region.

"Fatemah’s earliest memories were of being raped by her brothers. At age 11, she was sold in marriage to a young drug addict who abused her and then divorced her . . On the streets she heard the gospel preached, and she trusted Jesus. In time, she married a Christian man . . her family  . . [later] repented and gave their lives to the Lord. The first church Fatemah and her husband planted was in her childhood home."

Church in Iran

"As Christians, we especially love stories that tell us how, when all seems lost, God makes a way." A story like that is happening to the small Christian community in Iran now:

"Persecution threatened to wipe out Iran’s tiny church [Christian community]. Instead, the church in Iran has become the fastest growing in the world . ." (Locate Iran below.)

"More Iranians have become Christians in the last 20 years than in the previous 13 centuries put together."

How could this happen while there's so much persecution and suffering among them over the last several decades? Reason #1, violence in the name of Islam has led to questioning their beliefs. Reason #2, Christian believers have courageously shared the gospel in spite of the danger.

(cont'd tomorrow)

Retirees

Compared to the rest of the West, retired people in the U.S. are in the top three highest incomes per person with just Luxembourg and Norway ranking higher.

But money and happiness don't always go hand-in-hand. When American and European retirees rank their own happiness, it's Denmark and Sweden which are 1 & 2 with American retirees coming next.

Together

"In a gesture of solidarity following the gruesome killing of a French priest, Muslims have attended Catholic Mass in churches and cathedrals across the country and beyond."

"Dozens" of Muslims gathered at the cathedral in Rouen, France (just a few miles from the site of the priest's murder) for a Catholic mass. That could be dangerous for Muslims. Last March a British Muslim shopkeeper was killed for wishing a happy Easter to what he called "my beloved Christian nation."

Muslims in France make up 5-10% of the total population. "Dozens" is not a very big demonstration of Muslim sympathy for their Christian neighbors, but it demonstrates some courage.

What ISIS wants

Where did ISIS or Islamic State come from? What do they want? Bad news of their murderous path to power frequently makes the headlines (scroll down to see the last two days' posts).

They don't keep what they want a secret. They filmed themselves executing Christians and entitled it, "A message signed with blood to the nation of the cross".

Why France?

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

"Since January 2015, IS-inspired attackers have killed at least 235 people in France, by far the largest casualty rate of any Western country." Other European countries have suffered terror attacks but France seems to be a particular target. Why?

Large areas of Africa and the Middle East were French colonies, some of them held til just ~60 years ago, and some still have a French military presence. Families and descendants from those areas live in France today where they populate poor and alienated districts. Islamic State recruiting propaganda reaches these people and also French-speaking Muslims in Raqqa, Syria.  

Francois Hollande, president of France, said that their Western values also motivate attacks. "Terrorists will not give up on anything until we stop them."

Target France

France has been in a state of emergency since last November. Yesterday they endured yet another murder by ISIS followers, this time the knifing of an 84-year-old priest who was conducting mass in church.

This CNN author says it is part of Islamic State's international war on Christians, that they want a war between religions.

"Not only has the group driven out Christian populations from cities such as Mosul, but it has targeted them for death across the Middle East, including in Egypt where a local Islamic State affiliate has assassinated Coptic priests. In Nigeria, ISIS affiliate Boko Haram killed more than 4,000 Christians last year and attacked almost 200 churches, according to figures compiled by a Nigerian Christian organization."

The archbishop of Rouen, city near the site of the attack, said "I cry out to God with all men of goodwill."

(cont'd tomorrow)

Air cleaner

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Dutch artist Dan Roosegaard will be testing his air-cleaning-tower in Beijing in September. The towers create a pool of cleaner air as the they take out about 75% of the pollution.

The amount of energy used by the towers is another aspect of their usefulness. They run on just 1400 watts of power - no more than a tea kettle.

Btw, that ring in yesterday's post was actually a "cube that resembles a diamond," made by compressing the captured smog for half an hour.

Capture smog

Smog is a real problem in Beijing, China. How great would it be if they could trap that smog and turn it into something valuable like, say, diamonds.

Crazy as it sounds, a process to do this was invented by a Dutch artist. Here's a link to the video (which I would embed for you if I could figure out how).

Wifi hunting

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

Sometimes it's not only food she hunts for, but also internet access.

It's not safe to bring stacks of currency to pay bills (it takes "stacks" because inflation is spiraling). Bulky cash would be unsafe anywhere, but especially in the nation with the third-highest murder rate in the world.

That factor gives farmers markets an advantage beyond the fresh produce because the farmers accept credit cards. After picking out her foods, she gets in line to pay - then it starts raining.

"This is a problem. The Internet system that links the debit-card scanner to the banking sector crashes. Years of under-investment have compromised the system’s reliability. A half-hour goes by. There are now 30 of us waiting to pay. Some start grumbling about: the checkout clerk (she’s lazy), the banks (they’re awful), and the country overall (this place is just one endless line). A couple of elderly men give up. They put down their grocery bags and walk off. A few minutes later, I join them."

It's not easy doing the daily basics in Venezuela these days.

Food hunting

Venezuela's inflation rate is 200+%, meaning it loses at least half its value every year. Prices are regulated by the government, and the black market functions almost freely. Here's an account of what these economic facts mean in day-to-day life.

Fabiola Zerpa, mother of two, doesn't so much shop for food as hunt for food. Sometimes she bags it because of her persistence.

She's allowed to shop Sunday (useless because no regulated goods are sold on weekends) & Thursday. On the way to work Thursday she drives past a store, but the line is two blocks long and she can't wait. She stops at a bakery but they only sell bread at 5 p.m.

Her husband is able to buy (at 8x the regulated price) 5 kilos of corn flour through the friend of a friend. They use some of it to barter for powdered milk.

A week later she goes to a grocery without lines, to find that there are no lines because there are few groceries. “The bread arrived early, señora,” says a middle-aged store clerk. “It’s all gone.”  (cont'd tomorrow)

Good pasta

Skeptical is how I tend to be regarding this research. Surprised and glad is how I'll be if it turns out to be true. Maybe new information will come out to confirm it. According to this study, pasta is good for you.

That's just the opposite of the conventional wisdom,  that pasta is "the ultimate enemy of a lean body." But it wouldn't be the first time we've seen this kind of thing. That fact which "everybody knows" (including doctors and the government) . . turns out to be wrong.

"The results were pretty unequivocal. In both the groups, pasta consumption was linked in both women and men of different ages with a lower BMI, smaller waist circumference, and lower waist-to-hip ratio. 

No cakewalk

Uber drivers have now completed over a billion rides in 76 countries since their start in 2011.

In the face of considerable opposition, Uber has managed to succeed as an alternative to the taxi industry. In London, where black cabs are in fight mode, about 30,000 people become new Uber users per week.

Hungary just became the second country to outright ban it. Uber is trying to get around some sort of legal challenge in Taiwan.

"Regulating them out of business is one way of proceeding, but it is not the right way, for a litany of reasons – not least the new and perhaps unusual income earning opportunities they offer for sections of society who would find it difficult to earn money in  more traditional ways."

Crossing

(If you're unfamiliar with this downward spiral, click on "Venezuela" label to the right.)

For a couple of weekends, the people of Venezuela have had a new way to cope with desperate shortages of food and essentials. They lined up to cross the national border into Colombia.

The 1000+ mile border was closed by the government about a year ago, but with things getting worse they opened the border for 2 weekends. Well over one hundred thousand Venezuelans crossed over Saturday and Sunday to find food and merchandise.

A 70-year-old retired school teacher bringing her 5-month-old granddaughter said, "It's sad to be doing this, but we also know over there we'll find something."

photo: mysanantonio.com

Guns vs. canes

(cont'd from yesterday's post)

After decades of big growth, China's economy is slowing down and showing some weaknesses.  "[M]ore people [are] now exiting the workforce than entering it."

Hundreds of millions of peasants and laborers have paid nothing into any pension system. But the government wants to start building such a program, and it will be a huge expense. So . . economic growth is slowing down because there are fewer in the workforce, while costs to the country are escalating to take care of a growing number of seniors.

Not long ago, experts predicted that China's economy and military power would soon overtake the size of America's. But now that prediction is being questioned. Will they make the choice to allow an exploding elderly population to live in poverty while they challenge America's military preeminence? Or will their military dreams take a back seat?

(from The Atlantic)