Wednesday, August 31, 2016

U.S. below 2.1

If you've been reading this blog for a while, you're familiar with the topic label "Demography" (to the right, definition link). Read those posts, and you'll find that birth rate per woman in The West is uniformly going down, while in Africa it's high above replacement rate.

Here are figures for 224 nations from the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) for 2015. No surprise, European countries' birth rates are all below the rate necessary to maintain current populations (France are Ireland are highest among them).

The surprise in this data is that America's birth rate is now below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. It's the first time I've seen that.

"if the trend persists, it could mean lower living standards for most Americans in the future," as it will in every nation that stays below 2.1. Why? Because "It's generally true that most people produce more than they consume."

Read this story about one millennial couple who chose marriage and babies in their early 20's. They buck the trend.

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