Another note to China's urbanizing project (posts June 24 - June 27): The South China Morning Post (see the photo caption as the reason for this post's title) reports that there is still a lot of uncertainty about how it's going to work out.
The government aims to relocate 250-300 million rural citizens to new cities (which they are building so fast that many stand empty). "To accommodate them, China would have to build a new city the size of Shanghai every year for the next 20 years."
Got to wonder where they are getting their money. As a comparison, the U.S. can't even pay for our current spending (we won't be building empty cities any time soon). In fact, we are at a historic debt level - and China loaned us much of that money.
Again, the rationale for urbanization is that city people spend more money than country people so the economy will grow. Ummm, are there going to be jobs for them so they can buy lots of goods and services? Will they be passive about their uprooting? The world is watching.
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query china urbanizing. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query china urbanizing. Sort by date Show all posts
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Monday, August 11, 2014
China urbanizing
Continuing with a look back to a year ago, this week the subject is China's aggressive urbanization. The following was posted originally June 24, 2013.
China's government is forcibly moving 250 million people from their farms and villages into cities. Their thinking? City people consume more, so more economic growth will ensue.
“In a lot of cases in China, urbanization is the process of local government driving farmers into buildings while grabbing their land,” said Li Dun, a professor of public policy at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
A frenzy of building is producing high rise apartment buildings for former farmers. Some are glad to get a free apartment from the government, and some free initial money, but there may be social consequences when government uproots millions of people from their homes and way of life.
“For old people like us, there’s nothing to do anymore,” said He Shifang, 45, a farmer from the city of Ankang in Shaanxi Province who was relocated from her family’s farm in the mountains. “Up in the mountains we worked all the time. We had pigs and chickens. Here we just sit around and people play mah-jongg.”
"Relocated" . . the government took her farm and forced her into a city apartment? If it were me, I would really hate that.
China's government is forcibly moving 250 million people from their farms and villages into cities. Their thinking? City people consume more, so more economic growth will ensue.
“In a lot of cases in China, urbanization is the process of local government driving farmers into buildings while grabbing their land,” said Li Dun, a professor of public policy at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
A frenzy of building is producing high rise apartment buildings for former farmers. Some are glad to get a free apartment from the government, and some free initial money, but there may be social consequences when government uproots millions of people from their homes and way of life.
"Relocated" . . the government took her farm and forced her into a city apartment? If it were me, I would really hate that.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
China's urbanizing challenges
(cont'd from previous post)
The Chinese government is banking on strong economic growth to come from their plan to transform rural villagers into city dwellers. They expect these new urbanites to escalate their consumption, i.e. buy more goods, thus expanding their economy.
Of course, this assumes they'll have money to spend: first from government payments and then, when that runs out, from wages. But will there be jobs for them? Not much after about the age of 50, and then "most are still excluded from national pension plans, putting pressure on relatives to provide."
Jobs must be created. Vast amounts of money must be spent on infrastructure and services such as schools and healthcare. It seems the details have not been nailed down yet but the new prime minister is determined to press on with the goal.
The size of this project is staggering: remember that America's population is about 300 million - and the Chinese government intends to move 250 million people out of their countryside into mushrooming and combined cities.
Added to economic dangers, there will be considerable social stress. “Across China, bulldozers are leveling villages that date to long-ago dynasties."
See the photo here of a man scavenging in his former village.
The Chinese government is banking on strong economic growth to come from their plan to transform rural villagers into city dwellers. They expect these new urbanites to escalate their consumption, i.e. buy more goods, thus expanding their economy.
Of course, this assumes they'll have money to spend: first from government payments and then, when that runs out, from wages. But will there be jobs for them? Not much after about the age of 50, and then "most are still excluded from national pension plans, putting pressure on relatives to provide."
Jobs must be created. Vast amounts of money must be spent on infrastructure and services such as schools and healthcare. It seems the details have not been nailed down yet but the new prime minister is determined to press on with the goal.
The size of this project is staggering: remember that America's population is about 300 million - and the Chinese government intends to move 250 million people out of their countryside into mushrooming and combined cities.
Added to economic dangers, there will be considerable social stress. “Across China, bulldozers are leveling villages that date to long-ago dynasties."
See the photo here of a man scavenging in his former village.
Thursday, April 9, 2026
Billions wasted 1
Years ago, I discovered China's urbanizing drive, their "ghost cities," and their empty towns: staggering amounts of money were invested to develop them, yet almost no one lived there.
Years later, and they haven't changed much. (Here's a recent update on Kangbashi.)
Other countries have their stories of enormous expenditure, followed by emptiness or failure. Check out the gorgeous, expensive Forest City of Malaysia--empty and eerie for the few who do go there:
Monday, June 24, 2013
China aggressively urbanizing
China's government is forcibly moving 250 million people from their farms and villages into cities. Their thinking? City people consume more, so more economic growth will ensue.
“In a lot of cases in China, urbanization is the process of local government driving farmers into buildings while grabbing their land,” said Li Dun, a professor of public policy at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
A frenzy of building is producing high rise apartment buildings for former farmers. Some are glad to get a free apartment from the government, and some free initial money, but there may be social consequences when government uproots millions of people from their homes and way of life.
“For old people like us, there’s nothing to do anymore,” said He Shifang, 45, a farmer from the city of Ankang in Shaanxi Province who was relocated from her family’s farm in the mountains. “Up in the mountains we worked all the time. We had pigs and chickens. Here we just sit around and people play mah-jongg.”
"Relocated" . . the government took her farm and forced her into a city apartment? If it were me, I would really hate that.
“In a lot of cases in China, urbanization is the process of local government driving farmers into buildings while grabbing their land,” said Li Dun, a professor of public policy at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
A frenzy of building is producing high rise apartment buildings for former farmers. Some are glad to get a free apartment from the government, and some free initial money, but there may be social consequences when government uproots millions of people from their homes and way of life.
"Relocated" . . the government took her farm and forced her into a city apartment? If it were me, I would really hate that.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
Urbanizing challenges
(cont'd)
China's rulers are banking on strong economic growth to come from their plan to transform rural villagers into city dwellers. They expect these new urbanites to escalate their consumption, i.e. buy more goods, thus expanding their economy.
Of course, this assumes they'll have money to spend: first from government payments and then, when that runs out, from wages. But will there be jobs for them? Not much after about the age of 50, and then "most are still excluded from national pension plans, putting pressure on relatives to provide."
Jobs must be created. Vast amounts of money must be spent on infrastructure and services like schools and healthcare.
The size of this project is staggering: remember that America's population is about 300 million - and the Chinese government intends to move 250 million people out of their countryside into mushrooming and combined cities.
Added to economic dangers, there will be social stress. “Across China, bulldozers are leveling villages that date to long-ago dynasties." In the photo above a man scavenges among the ruins of his old village.
China's rulers are banking on strong economic growth to come from their plan to transform rural villagers into city dwellers. They expect these new urbanites to escalate their consumption, i.e. buy more goods, thus expanding their economy.
photo: nytimes.com
Jobs must be created. Vast amounts of money must be spent on infrastructure and services like schools and healthcare.
The size of this project is staggering: remember that America's population is about 300 million - and the Chinese government intends to move 250 million people out of their countryside into mushrooming and combined cities.
Added to economic dangers, there will be social stress. “Across China, bulldozers are leveling villages that date to long-ago dynasties." In the photo above a man scavenges among the ruins of his old village.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Cost of urbanizing
Twelve months ago on this blog (June 24-27, 2013) the topic was China's urbanization goal: to move 250 million people off rural land into cities, going from 53.7% to 60% of their population by 2020.
They have a more complete plan now, and they've figured out how much it's going to cost. Using land sales or debt to finance the massive plan, the price tag will amount to about 42 trillion yuan or $6.8 trillion dollars.
The rate of urbanization has slowed and is having a braking effect on economic expansion. Growing the economy was the central motivation for uprooting hundreds of millions of people.
“I can’t think of any country except North Korea that basically tells people where they can live,” said Yukon Huang, a former World Bank country head for China.
They have a more complete plan now, and they've figured out how much it's going to cost. Using land sales or debt to finance the massive plan, the price tag will amount to about 42 trillion yuan or $6.8 trillion dollars.
The rate of urbanization has slowed and is having a braking effect on economic expansion. Growing the economy was the central motivation for uprooting hundreds of millions of people.
“I can’t think of any country except North Korea that basically tells people where they can live,” said Yukon Huang, a former World Bank country head for China.
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Urbanizing "pitfalls"
(cont'd)
Last summer the New York Times ran a series about China's urbanization project. Highlighted is a Mr. Li who is in charge of relocating 2+ million people from rural mountains to low-lying cities. He admits that there are "pitfalls."
True to communist ideology, he is very confident that The Party knows better than the people what is good for them. "[M]odern-day Communist Party officials like Mr. Li speak knowingly of what is best for China’s 1.3 billion people, where they should live and how they should earn a living."
One of the pitfalls lies in the question of how these rural migrants are going to make a living in the cities. No article I've seen yet has revealed a plan for long-term careers. New apartments with more modern features abound, but they will have to be paid for.
The article's author visited and found people floundering with the transition:
"During a visit in February, townspeople sat in their front yards, huddled around open fires. Their homes were brand-new, with indoor heating and modern appliances, just as Mr. Li’s plan envisions, but it all runs on an unaffordable luxury: electricity. Hence the fires to keep warm."
Said one migrant, " . . we don’t heat or even use the washing machine.”
Last summer the New York Times ran a series about China's urbanization project. Highlighted is a Mr. Li who is in charge of relocating 2+ million people from rural mountains to low-lying cities. He admits that there are "pitfalls."
True to communist ideology, he is very confident that The Party knows better than the people what is good for them. "[M]odern-day Communist Party officials like Mr. Li speak knowingly of what is best for China’s 1.3 billion people, where they should live and how they should earn a living."
One of the pitfalls lies in the question of how these rural migrants are going to make a living in the cities. No article I've seen yet has revealed a plan for long-term careers. New apartments with more modern features abound, but they will have to be paid for.
The article's author visited and found people floundering with the transition:
"During a visit in February, townspeople sat in their front yards, huddled around open fires. Their homes were brand-new, with indoor heating and modern appliances, just as Mr. Li’s plan envisions, but it all runs on an unaffordable luxury: electricity. Hence the fires to keep warm."
Said one migrant, " . . we don’t heat or even use the washing machine.”
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