The bet (1)

Making predictions is risky - if you predict something that can actually be measured so that it's obvious if it came true or not.  The Bet tells the story of this kind of prediction and who won that bet.

amazon.com

Paul Ehrlich, a biologist who primarily studied butterflies, became alarmed at world population growth and began to predict apocalyptic disaster (The Population Bomb, 1970).  His mental model seems to have been the insect world in which populations expand until their environment can't sustain life, resulting in massive famine.

Momentum carried environmentalists like Ehrlich to fame, tv shows, hundreds of personal appearances, even influence on White House policy making.  He told audiences to expect famine, race wars, nuclear winter.  He recommended government control of human reproduction and coercive regulations because "collapse was inevitable."

Resistance to the doom scenario formed - backlash was coming.

(Based on The Bet by Paul Sabin)