Tuesday, October 22, 2013

China's "one-child"

China being the most populous nation on earth, its policies compel the attention of all countries.  And perhaps the most famous is the "one-child" policy.  Trends developing as a result: 
  • "Among newborns, there were more than 118 boys for every 100 girls in 2010 . .  in about 20 or 25 years' time, there will not be enough brides for almost a fifth of today's baby boys—with the potentially vast destabilizing consequences that could have."
  • Low total fertility rate has resulted in a rapidly aging society, where the working-age  (20-59) population segment is declining in number while the old/young dependency segment is increasing.  About the year 2030, India will surpass China in the size of its working-age population relative to its dependency population.  This could result in faster growth of India's GNP.
  • There is some opposition within China to the one-child policy, but the government still favors it - this in spite of the fact that Taiwan,  Hong Kong, Thailand and Indonesia cut their birth rate to a similar level without China's famously draconian coercion. 

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